I'm just going to preface this by saying that my predictions, as of right now, will be more of a discussion than a final choice. I have to admit that my deft predictions last year came after reading many an article and television spot on critics' choices.
Actor in a leading role: First I want to say, The Academy must love Ryan Gosling, because he didn't get a Golden Globe nod. I'll have to pick Forrest Whitaker for this one as well, although Peter O'Toole is a close second (based solely on reviews I've read about Venus).
Actor in a supporting role: I'm going to have to go with Eddie Murphy. I haven't seen Dreamgirls, but I heard that he was exceptional.
Actress in a leading role: Helen Mirren. End of discussion. Actually, PS, I feel for Kate Winslet because she gets nominated constantly and never wins. One day, Kate.
Actress in a supporting role: As much as we all love Abigail Breslin, it's just not going to happen. And apparently Jennifer Hudson is amazing, but it's her first film and first nomination, and The Academy puts a lot of weight on body of work versus individual performance. So I'm going to say Adriana Barraza or maybe Rinko Kikuchi. I haven't read enough reviews of Notes on a Scandal, but those two were break-outs in Babel.
Animated feature film: Cars.
This is the part where I skip the technical awards. I don't have much of an eye for that stuff, although I rightly predicted Titanic for make up in 1997.
Directing: Well I'm going to say Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima), with Martin Scorsese close behind, because of that whole body of work thing. Martin Scorsese is to the Oscars what Susan Lucci was to the daytime Emmys. He might win based on his career, although I don't think (and I'm pretty sure the pros agree with me) The Departed is his best work.
Documentary feature: Probably An Inconvenient Truth, but that's pretty mainstream as far as documentaries go. I heard that God Grew Tired of Us was amazing -- why isn't it nominated? If a documentary about the Sudan won an Oscar, it wouldn't hurt.
Best picture: I'm going to say Babel or Letters from Iwo Jima. As much as I loved The Queen, the whole movie is predicated on Helen Mirren's performance, and everything else about it really pales in comparison.
Writing (adapted screenplay): Wouldn't it be amazing if Borat won? Other than that, it will probably go to The Departed. Don't ask me why, I have no idea.
Writing (original screenplay): Probably Letters from Iwo Jima. Apprently this movie was amazing and perhaps it should have been released wide, because I heard that Flags of our Fathers (it's English-language companion film) wasn't that good.
Again, this is all tentative. If I have a breakthrough in the next month, I'll be sure to update with more solid premonitions.
